Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis Deepens as Rival Claims Raise Fears of Renewed Conflict

By Angel No Lie | KPD Online | September 24, 2026

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — Tensions between Ethiopia’s federal government and authorities in the northern Tigray region have escalated, with both sides accusing the other of initiating military action and raising concerns that the country could return to large-scale conflict.

The latest confrontation comes nearly four years after the November 2022 peace agreement that brought an end to the devastating Tigray war. Reports of territorial seizures, drone strikes and the formation of a new alliance of armed opposition groups have added to concerns about the durability of the peace settlement.

Survivors | World Press Photo

Federal government and Tigrayan authorities exchange accusations

Getachew Reda, an adviser to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, accused Tigrayan forces of taking control of federally administered airports in the region and launching attacks in neighboring Afar and Amhara.

Tigrayan authorities have rejected the characterization of their actions as an offensive, saying their forces were pushed into a defensive conflict following reported drone attacks in Tigray.

The conflicting accounts have not all been independently verified, and the parties’ descriptions of who initiated the latest military activity remain disputed.

Etiopía anuncia su ofensiva final sobre la capital de la región rebelde de Tigray | Internacional | EL PAÍS

Reported drone strikes in Alamata

Tigrayan authorities said that a drone and air attack on the town of Alamata in southern Tigray killed at least 14 people and injured 22 others. According to the local mayor, the reported attacks affected civilian areas, including two high schools.

The BBC reported that it could not independently verify the claims, while the Ethiopian federal government had not publicly commented on the alleged attacks at the time of the report.

The allegations are significant because attacks on civilian areas could further undermine efforts to maintain the 2022 peace agreement and increase displacement risks.

Aid Distribution And Rebuilding In Tigray

Airport control disrupts travel

The reported change in control of airports in Tigray led Ethiopian Airlines to cancel flights to the region, according to reports.

Residents in Mekelle told the BBC that local forces had taken control of the city’s airport from national police in the early hours of Wednesday. The airport developments underline how military and political tensions can quickly affect civilian movement, transportation and access to essential services.

New opposition alliance increases political pressure

The latest tensions follow the announcement of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition of seven armed opposition groups seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.

The alliance includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano National Movement and groups associated with Oromia, Afar, Somali, Benishangul-Gumuz and other areas.

The coalition brings together groups with different regional interests and histories. The TPLF and Fano forces, for example, previously fought on opposing sides during the 2020–2022 Tigray war. The coalition’s leaders have accused the federal government of centralizing power and marginalizing regional communities.

Questions about the alliance’s capacity

The formation of the alliance represents an additional political and security challenge for Addis Ababa. However, analysts have questioned whether the groups can coordinate effectively because of their geographic separation, differing political objectives and uneven military capabilities.

Magnus Taylor of the International Crisis Group told Reuters that cooperation could be constrained by the groups’ internal weaknesses and political differences. The alliance’s announcement, therefore, does not by itself establish that the groups can operate as a unified military force.

The unresolved legacy of the 2022 peace agreement

The Tigray war, which began in 2020, caused extensive civilian suffering, displacement and destruction. The Pretoria agreement signed in November 2022 ended the main phase of the conflict, but several contentious issues have remained unresolved.

These include territorial disputes, the status of regional political institutions, the future of armed forces in Tigray and relations between the federal government and regional authorities.

Reuters reported that the TPLF reasserted control over Tigray’s political administration in May 2026, an action described as violating the 2022 agreement. Tigrayan authorities, however, have accused the federal government of failing to implement the peace deal fully.

Regional and international concerns

The renewed tension has implications beyond Tigray. The region borders areas including Amhara and Afar, where separate political and armed conflicts have also contributed to insecurity.

Ethiopia’s relationship with neighboring Eritrea is another factor. The federal government has accused Eritrea of supporting armed opposition groups involved in the new alliance. Eritrea has repeatedly denied similar allegations. The role of external actors remains contested and requires independent verification.

The African Union Commission chairperson, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, has called for immediate de-escalation and a return to negotiations. The appeal reflects concern that continued military escalation could undermine the peace process and worsen the humanitarian situation.

Humanitarian risks

A return to sustained fighting could place additional pressure on communities that have not fully recovered from the previous war.

Potential consequences include:

• Displacement: Civilians may be forced to leave areas affected by fighting or airstrikes.

• Disrupted services: Damage to airports, roads, schools and health facilities could restrict access to essential services.

• Food insecurity: Conflict-related restrictions on movement and supply routes could affect food distribution.

• Civilian protection concerns: Allegations of attacks in populated areas require investigation and appropriate accountability mechanisms.

The extent of any new humanitarian emergency remains uncertain, and available reports do not establish the full scale of current displacement or casualties.

What happens next?

The immediate priority identified by regional and international officials is to prevent the current confrontation from developing into a wider war.

The main issues to monitor include:

Independent assessment

The latest developments show a serious deterioration in relations between Ethiopia’s federal authorities and Tigrayan leaders. However, the competing claims about who initiated the latest offensive should not be treated as independently established facts.

The formation of a broader opposition coalition and the reported military incidents increase the risks surrounding the peace process, but they do not necessarily establish that a full-scale war has begun. Independent monitoring, humanitarian access, verified casualty reporting and renewed negotiations will be important in determining whether the current crisis can be contained.

The central question is whether Ethiopia’s political actors can prevent localized military confrontations from developing into a wider national conflict.