Carney Says Ottawa Examined Remote Risk of U.S. Military Action

By Angel No Lie | KPD Online | 26 September 2026

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says his government has examined the remote possibility of U.S. military action against Canada, describing the scenario as an “extreme tail risk” that responsible governments should consider even though it is not the expected outcome.

Carney made the comments in an interview with The New York Times during the United Nations General Assembly in New York. He did not disclose details of any contingency planning, saying only that considering such risks formed part of his government’s responsibility.

Mark Carney Addresses Canada’s Security Concerns

Carney: It is risk management, not a forecast

Carney said leaders have a responsibility to consider extreme scenarios.

“That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to” prepare.

The terminology is important. In risk-management language, a “tail risk” refers to an event considered unlikely but potentially extremely consequential. Carney did not say that Ottawa expects the United States to attack Canada.

The Canadian prime minister also declined to explain what specific preparations had been made.

Carney Says Ottawa Examined Remote U.S. Military Risk

Why has the issue emerged?

Relations between Ottawa and Washington have deteriorated amid a prolonged trade dispute and President Donald Trump’s repeated statements about Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state.

Trump previously ruled out using military force to annex Canada, while saying he could use economic pressure. More recently, however, his rhetoric about Canada’s relationship with the United States has remained a source of concern in Ottawa.

Trade negotiations between the two countries broke down in August, followed by additional tariffs and retaliatory measures. The economic relationship is particularly significant because Canada remains highly dependent on the U.S. market.

Carney and Trump Navigate a Strained Canada-U.S. Relationship

Canada looks to reduce dependence on the United States

Carney has linked the current tensions to a broader effort to make Canada less dependent on its southern neighbour.

According to The New York Times interview, Ottawa is examining alternatives to several U.S.-linked systems and suppliers, including SpaceX’s Starlink satellite network and the planned purchase of F-35 fighter aircraft. Canada is also seeking to expand economic and diplomatic relationships with Europe and other partners.

Carney has argued that diversification would make Canada more resilient while still allowing it to maintain a close relationship with Washington.

Defence considerations

The comments come as Canada increases its attention to defence and sovereignty, particularly because of the country’s extensive Arctic territory and coastline.

Canada and the United States remain military allies through NATO and NORAD, making the prospect of an armed conflict between the two countries an extraordinary scenario.

Analysts cited by Al Jazeera described the possibility of U.S. military action as extremely remote. The same analysis noted the substantial difference between the military capabilities of the two countries.

Carney’s comments therefore appear to concern contingency planning rather than an announcement that Canada believes an attack is imminent.

Carney says communication with Trump continues

Despite the tensions, Carney said he and Trump continue to communicate frequently.

He told The New York Times that the two leaders can still discuss issues directly and that he believes there remains a route toward resuming trade negotiations.

That creates a notable contrast in the current relationship: Ottawa is simultaneously preparing for highly adverse scenarios while maintaining diplomatic and economic engagement with Washington.

What the statement does — and does not — mean

A relationship under unusual strain

Canada and the United States remain deeply connected economically, militarily and geographically. The current dispute is therefore significant precisely because the two countries have historically maintained one of the world’s closest bilateral relationships.

Carney’s remarks indicate that Ottawa is considering scenarios that would previously have been regarded as extraordinarily unlikely. At the same time, his characterization of the possibility as an “extreme tail risk” makes clear that he is not presenting military conflict as the government’s base-case expectation.

Independent assessment

The most important distinction is between contingency planning and prediction. Governments routinely assess low-probability scenarios because the consequences of failing to prepare for an extreme event can be significant. Carney’s public comments confirm that Ottawa has considered this particular scenario, but they do not establish that Canada expects U.S. military action.

The immediate issue remains the broader deterioration in Canada-U.S. relations, particularly over trade, sovereignty rhetoric and Canada’s efforts to reduce strategic dependence on the United States.