Radiant Media proposes 60-day national petroleum reserve to cushion Ghanaians against oil shocks

Emmanuel Duah, Executive Director of Radiant Media and Intelligence Hub, has proposed the establishment of a National Petroleum Reserve Buffer (NPRB) to protect Ghanaian consumers from sharp increases in fuel prices triggered by global crude oil price shocks and supply disruptions.

According to Emmanuel Duah, the proposed reserve would provide Ghana with a dedicated and auditable stock of refined petroleum products that could be released into the domestic market when international crude prices surge or major external disruptions threaten fuel supply.

In an energy security proposal, Mr Duah said Ghana may not be able to control international developments such as conflicts, attacks on oil infrastructure or disruptions along major shipping routes, but the country can strengthen its ability to absorb the resulting economic shock.

He described the situation as one where “the crisis is external, but the pain is local.”

Emmanuel Duah’s proposal comes against the backdrop of significant volatility on the international crude oil market.

The proposal notes that Brent crude had risen to $108.77 per barrel, a four-month high, with physical crude cargoes in Europe trading above $130 per barrel.

It cited North Sea Forties crude trading at about $136.75 per barrel, approaching the previous high of $147.37.

Mr Duah attributed the international price pressure to external developments, including the escalating US-Iran conflict, attacks affecting oil infrastructure, disruptions to oil production in Libya and threats to shipping through the Red Sea.

According to Emmanuel Duah, sustained increases in global crude prices could quickly translate into higher petroleum prices in Ghana.

He warned that the resulting pressure could affect pump prices, the Ghanaian cedi, transport fares and inflation.

“Ghana cannot control the Strait of Hormuz, but Ghana can control its buffer,” Mr Duah stated in the proposal.

He therefore wants Ghana to establish a strategic stock that can be deployed during periods of extreme international price volatility.

Under the proposal, the National Petroleum Reserve Buffer would be a sovereign strategic stock held strictly for national energy security and consumer protection.

Mr Duah stressed that the reserve should not be treated as additional stock for BOST’s normal commercial trading operations.

Instead, the petroleum products would be held specifically for emergency market intervention.

The proposal recommends maintaining:

• 45 days of petrol consumption
• 45 days of diesel consumption
• 30 days of LPG consumption

The stocks would be distributed across BOST’s six depots at Accra Plains, Kumasi, Buipe, Bolgatanga, Maame Water and Takoradi.

The proposal puts the combined storage capacity of the facilities at 760,000 cubic metres or more.

BOST would remain responsible for custody, storage and maintenance of the strategic stock but would not be allowed to trade the reserve commercially.

Emmanuel Duah is proposing the creation of a National Petroleum Reserve Committee (NPRC) under the proposed Modern NPA Act, 2026.

The committee would be chaired by the Minister for Energy and Green Transition, while the Chief Executive of BOST Energies would serve as Vice-Chair.

Other proposed members include representatives from:

• National Petroleum Authority
• Bank of Ghana
• National Security
• Ministry of Finance
• Energy Commission
• Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies
• Consumer Protection Agency

The NPA Chief Executive would serve as secretary and regulator, while BOST would act as the technical operator and custodian.

Mr Duah describes the proposed arrangement as “minister-led but not minister-controlled.”

To prevent political abuse or unilateral decisions, Emmanuel Duah proposes that any decision to release reserve stocks should require a two-thirds majority of the National Petroleum Reserve Committee.

He also proposes that every release decision be published in the Ghana Gazette within 24 hours, including the volume released and the anticipated price impact.

According to Mr Duah, the arrangement would provide greater transparency and accountability while limiting the possibility of arbitrary interventions.

Emmanuel Duah’s proposal calls for a financing structure that would not impose a new tax or levy on consumers.

The proposed funding model is:

• 30% from a ring-fenced portion of BOST’s existing margin
• 40% from a windfall mechanism
• 20% from the ESLA Stabilisation portion
• 10% from private-sector participation by members of the Chamber of Bulk Oil Distributors

Under the proposed windfall mechanism, when BOST’s annual trading profit exceeds GH¢500 million, 10% of the amount would be directed towards acquiring strategic petroleum stocks.

Mr Duah cited BOST’s reported GH¢683.96 million profit in 2025 as an indication of the potential financing base.

The proposal also calls for clearly defined conditions for releasing petroleum products from the reserve.

The first proposed trigger would be activated when the 30-day average Brent crude price exceeds $100 per barrel.

The second would apply when Ghana’s ex-pump petrol price crosses GH¢15.50 per litre.

The third would be triggered when the NPA declares a supply disruption resulting from an external shock, such as a major interruption in supplies or a disruption along a key international shipping route.

When the triggers are met, BOST would release the buffer stock at a subsidised ex-depot price.

The difference between the market price and the subsidised price would be absorbed by the proposed Buffer Fund, rather than by oil marketing companies.

Mr Duah argues that this structure would allow the price relief to reach consumers directly.

Emmanuel Duah also proposes that Ghana should restock the reserve once international crude prices ease.

Under his proposal, when Brent crude remains below $85 per barrel for 30 consecutive days, the reserve would begin to be replenished.

The mechanism is intended to allow Ghana to build up stocks during relatively favourable market conditions and deploy them during periods of severe price pressure.

A major element of Mr Duah’s proposal is the need to maintain BOST’s financial strength and commercial independence.

He argues that BOST’s commercial operations should remain separate from the strategic reserve so that the company can continue generating profits that could contribute to national energy security.

He cited BOST’s reported GH¢683.96 million profit in 2025 and GH¢34.2 million dividend payment to the government as evidence of the company’s ability to generate revenue.

Under the proposed framework, BOST would be the custodian and technical operator, NPA would regulate the reserve, the Energy Minister-led committee would make strategic release decisions, and Parliament would provide oversight.

Emmanuel Duah’s proposal also points to strategic petroleum reserves maintained or planned by other countries.

It cites the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve, India’s Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Limited (ISPRL) and Kenya’s plans for a strategic reserve.

Mr Duah believes Ghana could establish itself as a regional leader in energy security by maintaining a 60-day petroleum buffer.

According to the proposal, a strategic reserve could help reduce the immediate impact of major increases in international crude prices.

Mr Duah estimates that if crude prices rise from approximately $80 to $130 per barrel, a reserve release could potentially reduce the increase in Ghanaian pump prices by between GH¢2 and GH¢3 per litre for 45 to 60 days.

He argues that such intervention could help cushion consumers, transport operators and businesses while limiting the impact of fuel-price increases on the cost of transporting food and other goods.

The proposal also suggests that the reserve could help prevent panic buying and shortages during major supply disruptions.

Mr Duah further argues that reducing the immediate transmission of global oil-price shocks into the domestic economy could give the Bank of Ghana additional room to manage pressure on the cedi.

Emmanuel Duah is therefore calling for the proposed Modern NPA Act, 2026 to provide a legal framework for establishing the National Petroleum Reserve Buffer.

Under his proposed arrangement, the Energy Minister-led committee would make strategic decisions, BOST would operate and safeguard the reserve, NPA would regulate it, and Parliament would provide oversight.

Mr Duah says the system would give Ghana a structured mechanism for responding to international oil-price shocks rather than allowing every external increase to be transmitted immediately to local consumers.

His proposal is based on the view that while Ghana cannot control international conflicts or disruptions to major oil supply routes, it can strengthen its domestic capacity to absorb their economic effects.

As Mr Duah puts it: “Ghana cannot stop missiles in Hormuz, but Ghana can stop the full missile hitting the Ghanaian consumer.”