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Global growth to slow to 2.8% from 3.3% in 2025 — IMF warns
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sharply downgraded its global growth forecast, projecting the world economy to expand by just 2.8% in 2025, a significant drop from the 3.3% forecast made in January.
This update is contained in the published IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), which cites escalating trade tensions with the United States announcing a wave of new tariffs with trading partners responding with their own countermeasures, creating ripple effects across global supply chains and investor sentiment.
It also cites mounting policy uncertainty as the main culprits behind the slowdown.
“Since the release of the January 2025 WEO Update, a series of new tariff measures by the United States and countermeasures by its trading partners have been announced and implemented, ending up in near-universal US tariffs on April 2 and bringing effective tariff rates to levels not seen in a century.
“This on its own is a major negative shock to growth. The unpredictability with which these measures have been unfolding also has a negative impact on economic activity and the outlook and, at the same time, makes it more difficult than usual to make assumptions that would constitute a basis for an internally consistent and timely set of projections.
“Given the complexity and fluidity of the current moment, this report presents a “reference forecast” based on information available as of April 4, 2025 (including the April 2 tariffs and initial responses), in lieu of the usual baseline. This is complemented with a range of global growth forecasts, primarily under different trade policy assumptions.
“The swift escalation of trade tensions and extremely high levels of policy uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic activity. Under the reference forecast that incorporates information as of April 4, global growth is projected to drop to 2.8 percent in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026—down from 3.3 percent for both years in the January 2025 WEO Update, corresponding to a cumulative downgrade of 0.8 percentage point, and much below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.7 percent,” part of the report read.
In advanced economies, growth is now expected to slow to 1.4% in 2025, with the U.S. economy seeing a notable downgrade—now projected at 1.8%, nearly a full percentage point below previous estimates.
In emerging market and developing economies, growth is expected to slow down to 3.7 percent in 2025 and 3.9 percent in 2026, with significant downgrades for countries affected most by recent trade measures, such as China. Global headline inflation is expected to decline at a pace that is slightly slower than what was expected in January, reaching 4.3 percent in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 2026, with notable upward revisions for advanced economies and slight downward revisions for emerging market and developing economies in 2025.
The IMF flagged intensifying downside risks, warning that a deeper trade war, rising financial instability, and fragile policy buffers could worsen the economic landscape. Vulnerable emerging markets could face capital flight, currency pressures, and increasing debt burdens.
The Fund also noted that a reversal or de-escalation of current trade policies could offer a reprieve and potentially revive global growth.
“Intensifying downside risks dominate the outlook. Ratcheting up a trade war, along with even more elevated trade policy uncertainty, could further reduce near- and long-term growth, while eroded policy buffers weaken resilience to future shocks. Divergent and rapidly shifting policy stances or deteriorating sentiment could trigger additional repricing of assets beyond what took place after the announcement of sweeping US tariffs on April 2 and sharp adjustments in foreign exchange rates and capital flows, especially for economies already facing debt distress.
“Broader financial instability may ensue, including damage to the international monetary system. Demographic shifts and a shrinking foreign labor force may curb potential growth and threaten fiscal sustainability. The lingering effects of the recent cost-of-living crisis, coupled with depleted policy space and dim medium-term growth prospects, could reignite social unrest. The resilience shown by many large emerging market economies may be tested as servicing high debt levels becomes more challenging in unfavorable global financial conditions.
“More limited international development assistance may increase the pressure on low-income countries, pushing them deeper into debt or necessitating significant fiscal adjustments, with immediate consequences for growth and living standards. On the upside, a deescalation from current tariff rates and new agreements providing clarity and stability in trade policies could lift global growth,” it added.
The report calls for coordinated policy action, urging nations to work together to restore predictability in trade, strengthen debt sustainability, and address long-term structural challenges like demographic shifts and migration.
Source: Citi Newsroom
Ghanaians can expect a drop in fuel prices starting Monday, June 16, 2025, following the government’s decision to suspend the proposed GH¢1.0 Energy Sector Levy. This comes as a relief to consumers and marks the seventh consecutive price reduction since mid-February.
The latest Pricing Outlook Report from the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC) indicates that the postponement of the levy is a key factor driving the anticipated price cuts.
Projected Prices at the Pump
According to data sourced from oil marketing firms and obtained by Joy Business, the new price of petrol is expected to be around GH¢11.77 per litre — representing a drop between 1.1% and 2.25% from prices recorded on June 1.
Diesel prices are set for a more significant decrease, falling by as much as 4.3% to about GH¢12.13 per litre. Likewise, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) will see a 3.2% dip, bringing the price per kilogram to GH¢13.30.
Why Are Prices Falling?
The Chamber attributes the downward trend primarily to the Ghana cedi’s continued appreciation against the US dollar. This currency strength has offset the impact of rising global oil prices, which surged amid renewed conflict in the Middle East.
Despite crude oil prices climbing to around $75 per barrel due to Israel’s military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, Ghanaian fuel prices remain stable — for now. The situation, however, remains volatile.
Warning Signs for July
Officials at COMAC caution that if global oil prices continue to climb, fuel prices in Ghana could begin to rise again starting July 1, 2025.
Recent escalations in the Middle East have already caused oil prices to rise sharply, with Brent crude jumping 4.41% from $65.35 to $68.23 per barrel. These tensions have also prompted the United States to partially evacuate its embassy in Iraq, adding to global uncertainty.
As a result, international benchmark prices for petrol and diesel have risen by 1.03% and 3.94% respectively. In contrast, LPG prices dropped by 1.79%.
Impact of the Suspended Levy
COMAC’s projections suggest that had the government gone ahead with the additional GH¢1.0 Energy Sector Levy, consumers would have faced significant price hikes. Petrol would have surged by 9.1% per litre and diesel by 8.25%. LPG would have still seen a modest 2.29% decline, as it was not included in the levy’s scope.
The current suspension offers temporary relief, but stakeholders warn that sustained global instability may force a reversal of the current trend in the coming weeks.
The Asantehene, Otumfuo Osei Tutu II, has expressed deep concern over Ghana’s continued dependence on imported food items that can be cultivated locally.
He urged the Minister for Food and Agriculture, Eric Opoku, to take bold steps to significantly reduce food imports and prioritize the development of local agriculture.
Speaking during a courtesy call by the Minister and his delegation at the Manhyia Palace on Friday, June 13, Otumfuo Osei Tutu II emphasized the need for urgent interventions to rekindle interest in farming, particularly among the youth.
The Asantehene recommended a possible revival of the historic “Operation Feed Yourself” initiative from the Acheampong era, should the government deem it necessary to revitalize the agricultural sector.
“It’s disheartening that we are still importing basic produce like tomatoes and onions. Work hard to halt or at least minimize food imports so we can produce more locally. I’ll be monitoring closely—make sure farmers get irrigation support,” he stressed.
Otumfuo also called on chiefs and traditional leaders across the country to contribute to national development by making land available for agricultural use, suggesting such lands could be offered as equity in farming ventures to encourage investment and productivity.
As excitement builds for the upcoming African Cup of Nations (AFCON), the Confederation of African Football (CAF) has officially announced TECNO, the AI-powered technology brand and subsidiary of Transsion Holdings, as the Official Global Partner for the TotalEnergies CAF AFCON Morocco 2025, as well as the 2027 edition, which will be jointly hosted by Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda.
This strategic partnership reflects TECNO’s vision of empowering young Africans through the intersection of technology and sports. With its brand philosophy, “Stop at Nothing,” TECNO aims to inspire and equip the next generation across the continent to pursue their dreams and reach new heights.
The announcement comes on the heels of TECNO’s successful collaboration with CAF during the TotalEnergies CAF AFCON Côte d’Ivoire 2023, where the brand served as the exclusive smartphone sponsor. That partnership delivered record-breaking engagement and deepened TECNO’s investment in African football, laying the foundation for this renewed alliance.
CAF General Secretary, Véron Mosengo-Omba, made the announcement in Nairobi, Kenya, stating:
“The growing success of the TotalEnergies CAF Africa Cup of Nations has led to several high-impact sponsorships. TECNO’s continued support will play a vital role in helping Africa’s biggest sporting event expand its reach and influence. On behalf of CAF and its 54 Member Associations, we express our sincere gratitude to TECNO for investing in the future of African football.”
Benjamin Jiang, Vice President of Transsion Holdings, also expressed enthusiasm about the renewed partnership:
“This collaboration is a reflection of the trust and shared success we’ve built with CAF. In our previous engagement, we witnessed how football sparked passion and how AI-powered technology connected and empowered millions across Africa.”
He continued:
“This partnership goes far beyond the game. It represents a shared ambition—a platform for young Africans to thrive, driven by innovation and progress. It underscores our commitment to using AI-driven solutions to shape a brighter future for the continent.”
As part of its pan-African commitment, TECNO is also continuing its “Dream Field Renovation” campaign, a community initiative launched with CAF in 2024. The project aims to renovate 100 football fields in underserved communities across Africa by 2028, promoting healthy living, youth engagement, and access to quality sports infrastructure.
About TECNO
TECNO is a global technology brand powered by artificial intelligence, operating in over 70 markets across five continents. The company is dedicated to transforming digital experiences in emerging markets through a bold blend of cutting-edge technology and contemporary design.
TECNO’s product ecosystem includes AI-enabled smartphones, wearables, laptops, tablets, gaming devices, the proprietary HiOS operating system, and smart home solutions. Guided by its brand ethos, “Stop at Nothing,” TECNO is committed to empowering forward-thinking individuals to unlock their potential and pursue a brighter future.
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