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BoG Opts for Steady Rates While Inflation Continues to Fall

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The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana is set to make a crucial decision on the country’s benchmark interest rate at its 124th meeting. In a cautious approach, the committee is expected to hold steady at 28 per cent, opting for prudence over hasty rate cuts.

According to GCB Capital’s Economic and Market Insight analysis, this measured stance will allow the MPC to closely monitor the economy’s progress, particularly with headline inflation currently below 20 per cent.

As the economic landscape continues to evolve, the MPC may signal a potential gradual rate reduction by the third quarter of 2025, contingent on sustained disinflation trends, currency stability, and fiscal discipline.

A rate cut in Q3 2025 could provide a much-needed boost to the economy, but it hinges on the Bank of Ghana’s ability to maintain a delicate balance between growth and inflation control. With fiscal policy and foreign exchange markets playing a critical role, the MPC’s decision will be closely watched by stakeholders and market analysts alike.

However, potential upside risks such as rising fuel prices, depreciation of the cedi or trade tensions could postpone any easing. Conversely, a more rapid disinflation could accelerate this timeline.

Nonetheless, if a rate-cutting cycle does occur, nominal interest rates are likely to decline, which would lower borrowing costs and potentially stimulate economic activity.

However, caution is warranted as any premature easing of policy could trigger a resurgence of inflation, jeopardising the recent progress in price stability.

Headline inflation

Headline inflation has been steadily declining since its peak, with the April figure of 21.2 per cent indicating progress, yet it remains significantly above the central bank’s target range of 8±2 per cent.

The current policy rate of 28 per cent continues to exceed inflation, demonstrating the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) commitment to anchoring expectations.

However, with the real policy rate of 28 per cent compared to the 21.2 per cent inflation has reduced the urgency for further tightening.

The continued decline in inflation to 21.2 per cent, the fourth consecutive monthly drop, signals a gradual easing of inflationary pressures.

However, with the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) elevated at 28 per cent, the policy stance remains tight to anchor inflation expectations.

Treasury yields, currently ranging between 15.23 per cent and 16.95 per cent (Tender 1953), remain deeply negative in real terms, creating disincentives for holding government securities.

Fiscal consolidation efforts have further motivated the Ministry of Finance to suppress borrowing costs, resulting in limited upside for treasury yields despite the high policy rate.

In the fixed income market, the low real returns on government securities continue to dampen investor appetite.

As Ghana lacks inflation-indexed bonds, investors are increasingly shifting towards higher-yielding corporate debt, bank securities and short- to medium-term assets that provide better liquidity and potential for reinvestment at higher rates if inflation moderates further.

The equity market presents selective opportunities as macroeconomic stabilisation improves investor sentiment.

Banking stocks continue to perform well, benefiting from improved net interest margins and lower impairments, while other listed sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and telecoms stand to gain from easing cost pressures and a stabilising cedi.

Ghana cedi

On the currency front, the cedi has shown strong performance, emerging as the best-performing currency globally in May.

This appreciation is supported by a disciplined fiscal outlook, investor confidence and structural measures, including the newly passed Act establishing GOLDBOD and foreign exchange initiatives by the Bank of Ghana.

These interventions are expected to provide short- to medium-term stability to the currency and ease demand-side pressures on foreign exchange markets.

In the commodities space, price stability in locally produced foods and non-food baskets and agricultural imports may continue as global commodity markets adjust, and local currency strength reduces pass-through effects.

However, external shocks, trade tensions and global supply chain risks still present a level of unpredictability that investors must factor into their outlook.

Given the current macro and market dynamics, investors should consider repositioning toward short to medium-duration fixed income instruments, high-quality corporate bonds and equities with strong fundamentals in sectors benefiting from disinflation and exchange rate stability.

Holding moderate commodity exposure, particularly to gold, may provide a hedge against volatility. Meanwhile, given the cedi’s strengthening trajectory and policy support, dollar hoarding may be reduced in appeal, but maintaining a balanced exposure to foreign currency assets could still serve as insurance against future shocks

Source: Graphic online

Banking and Finance

BoG Governor: Ghana’s Economic Recovery Proves Credibility and Discipline Can Restore Stability

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The Governor of the Bank of Ghana (BoG), Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama, says Ghana’s strong economic rebound shows that credibility, transparency and disciplined policy reforms can restore stability even after a major financial crisis.

Speaking at the opening of the maiden Pan-African Central Bank Governors’ Conference in Accra on Monday, Dr. Asiama recalled that just three years ago the country was battling what the World Bank described as a “homegrown crisis.”

“Inflation had soared to 54.1 percent, the cedi had lost half of its value, and reserves had dropped to less than one month of import cover,” he recounted.
“When my team assumed office in 2025, we chose one mission — stabilisation. We tightened policy, sterilised excess liquidity, and communicated openly with the public, the markets and citizens.”

A Recovery Backed by Data

He noted that these measures have yielded significant results. Inflation has now dropped to 8 percent — the first time Ghana has returned to single-digit inflation since 2021.

The country’s international reserves have also improved, reaching $11 billion, enough to cover 4.8 months of imports as of September 2025. Additionally, the cedi has appreciated by more than 34 percent year-to-date, reversing last year’s depreciation.

“Our stability is real, but still young — it is still being tested,” Dr. Asiama cautioned.
“Credible communication and sustained fiscal discipline will be key to protecting these gains.”

Pan-African Conference on Central Banking

The two-day high-level conference is being hosted by the Bank of Ghana in partnership with the Bank of England and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).

Held under the theme:
“Central Bank Governance: Leadership, Credibility and Resilience in African Central Banking,”
the event brings together leaders of 23 African central banks to discuss policy independence, governance and regional financial stability.

Notable attendees included:

  • British High Commissioner to Ghana, Dr. Christian Rogg

  • Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy at the Bank of England, Clare Lombardelli

  • First Deputy Governor of BoG, Dr. Zakari Mumuni

  • Second Deputy Governor of BoG, Matilda Asante-Asiedu

Collaboration and Peer Learning

Dr. Rogg praised the growing cooperation among African central banks, noting that shared learning is now key in addressing inflation, debt risks and global market instability.

He emphasized that the partnership between the Bank of Ghana and the Bank of England — which began in 2015 — has evolved from aid-oriented support into a knowledge-sharing model that strengthens financial governance and resilience.

Ms. Lombardelli added that the Bank of England remains committed to supporting central banks across the Global South through training, research collaborations and initiatives such as the UK and international market funding programmes.

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Bank of Ghana Gives Unlicensed Digital Lenders Until June 2026 to Obtain Licenses or Face Shutdown

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The Bank of Ghana (BoG) has issued a firm directive to all unlicensed mobile loan apps and digital credit providers operating in the country, giving them until June 30, 2026, to regularize their operations or face severe regulatory sanctions, including possible suspension or closure.

 

Starting November 3, 2025, the central bank will begin receiving applications from companies seeking to operate as Digital Credit Service Providers (DCSPs) under new licensing guidelines. These guidelines are aimed at bringing greater order, transparency, and consumer protection to Ghana’s fast-growing digital lending sector.

 

This move comes amid increasing public concern over the surge of unregulated online lenders accused of charging excessive interest rates, violating data privacy, and using unethical methods to recover loans.

 

The BoG emphasized that any entity failing to comply within the specified timeframe would face “appropriate regulatory action” as part of ongoing efforts to strengthen oversight and build public confidence in Ghana’s fintech and digital credit space.

 

The central bank is urging all existing operators to submit the necessary documentation to the FinTech and Innovation Office for review and approval well ahead of the June 2026 deadline.

 

 

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IMF Warns Ghana Against Early Return to International Markets

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned the Government of Ghana against making a premature return to international capital markets, warning that renewed “excessive and expensive borrowing” could undermine the country’s fragile economic recovery.

 

With just two weeks to the presentation of the 2026 national budget, the IMF’s Resident Representative in Ghana, Dr. Adrian Alter, has urged government to remain prudent in its financing decisions and to focus on concessional loans from development partners such as the World Bank, the African Development Bank (AfDB), and the IMF itself.

 

In an interview on Channel One TV’s Point of View with Bernard Avle, Dr. Alter noted that although global financial conditions have improved slightly, borrowing on international markets would still come at a significantly high cost — likely above 10 percent interest — due to Ghana’s current credit rating.

 

“We have advised the government to be extremely prudent, not to repeat the excessive borrowing mistakes of the past,” Dr. Alter said. “When concessional financing is available from multilateral agencies like the World Bank, the African Development Bank, and the IMF, there’s little reason to seek expensive loans on the international markets.”

 

Dr. Alter emphasized that borrowing costs remain prohibitive for emerging economies like Ghana, making any return to the Eurobond market risky under present conditions.

 

He further explained that under the ongoing IMF-supported programme, Ghana faces strict limits on new external borrowing to ensure debt sustainability. The country is therefore expected to maintain a financing mix of about 70 percent domestic and 30 percent external borrowing, consistent with the IMF’s debt sustainability framework and agreements with creditors.

 

“On the domestic market, we’ve worked closely with the government to begin lengthening bond maturities beyond one year,” Dr. Alter said. “We hope that by early next year, conditions will be in place for the domestic bond market to reopen.”

 

Ghana has remained locked out of the international capital markets since its 2022 debt default, when the government suspended payments on most of its external debt as part of efforts to stabilize the economy. The default severely eroded investor confidence, effectively cutting off access to new borrowing.

 

The country is currently implementing a $3 billion IMF-supported programme aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability after years of widening fiscal deficits, rising debt levels, and high inflation. The programme seeks to return public debt to sustainable levels, rebuild foreign reserves, and promote inclusive growth.

 

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