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World Bank Upgrades Ghana’s 2025 Growth Forecast to 4.3%, Cites Strong Services Sector and Cedi Gains

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The World Bank has revised Ghana’s 2025 economic growth projection upward to 4.3%, an improvement from its earlier forecast of 3.9%, according to the latest Africa’s Pulse Report released in Washington, D.C.

 

The updated outlook places Ghana’s expected growth slightly below the 4.4% target set by the government in the 2025 national budget. The Bank attributed the positive revision to Ghana’s robust second-quarter performance, where the economy expanded by 6.3%, led by the services sector, which grew by 9.9% and remained the largest contributor to GDP.

 

Looking ahead, the World Bank anticipates steady growth, projecting Ghana’s economy to expand by 4.6% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027.

Regional Economic Outlook

Across Sub-Saharan Africa, the World Bank forecasts economic growth to reach 3.8% in 2025, up from 3.5% in 2024. This modest rebound is supported by easing inflation pressures and renewed investment activity, despite global financial uncertainty.

 

The report highlighted significant progress in controlling inflation across the continent, noting that the number of African countries with double-digit inflation fell from 23 in 2022 to 10 by mid-2025. However, it cautioned that challenges such as shrinking foreign investment, reduced development aid, and global trade policy risks could still undermine recovery.

Inflation and Monetary Stability

The World Bank projects Ghana’s inflation to close 2025 at 15.4%, contrasting with the country’s current single-digit rate of 9.4% in September 2025, down sharply from 21.5% a year earlier.

 

While analysts consider the Bank’s inflation outlook conservative, it nonetheless signals optimism, with further declines expected to 9.4% in 2026. The Bank of Ghana has also reaffirmed its expectation that inflation will remain in single digits by the end of 2025.

 

Cedi Strengthens Amid Fiscal Discipline

Ghana’s currency has appreciated by over 20% in the first eight months of 2025, recovering from a 19% loss in 2024. The World Bank attributed this rebound to tight fiscal policies, improved investor confidence, and higher export earnings from cocoa and gold.

 

However, the Bank expressed concern over a temporary 14% depreciation of the cedi between June and early September due to limited foreign exchange supply and increased import demand ahead of the festive season.

 

The report also confirmed that Ghana has successfully exited the “debt distress” category after completing major restructuring agreements. Despite this, the Bank warned of refinancing pressures, citing upcoming Eurobond maturities of US$500 million in 2025 and 1.2% of GDP in 2026.

 

Improving Business Climate

Business conditions have shown steady improvement, with Ghana’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising from 50.2 in July to 50.8 in August 2025, reflecting increased orders and job creation. Inflation has continued its downward trend, falling for seven straight months to 12.1% in July, compared to 23.8% in December 2024.

 

The World Bank also underscored the importance of a reliable power supply for sustaining growth. It recalled that frequent power outages during the 2012–2016 “Dumsor” crisis led to a 12.3% decline in foreign direct investment outside the energy sector and reduced productivity among firms reliant on consistent electricity.

 

According to the report, maintaining energy stability and competitive pricing will be essential for Ghana to strengthen its industrial base and attract long-term investment.

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Banking and Finance

BoG Governor: Ghana’s Economic Recovery Proves Credibility and Discipline Can Restore Stability

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The Governor of the Bank of Ghana (BoG), Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama, says Ghana’s strong economic rebound shows that credibility, transparency and disciplined policy reforms can restore stability even after a major financial crisis.

Speaking at the opening of the maiden Pan-African Central Bank Governors’ Conference in Accra on Monday, Dr. Asiama recalled that just three years ago the country was battling what the World Bank described as a “homegrown crisis.”

“Inflation had soared to 54.1 percent, the cedi had lost half of its value, and reserves had dropped to less than one month of import cover,” he recounted.
“When my team assumed office in 2025, we chose one mission — stabilisation. We tightened policy, sterilised excess liquidity, and communicated openly with the public, the markets and citizens.”

A Recovery Backed by Data

He noted that these measures have yielded significant results. Inflation has now dropped to 8 percent — the first time Ghana has returned to single-digit inflation since 2021.

The country’s international reserves have also improved, reaching $11 billion, enough to cover 4.8 months of imports as of September 2025. Additionally, the cedi has appreciated by more than 34 percent year-to-date, reversing last year’s depreciation.

“Our stability is real, but still young — it is still being tested,” Dr. Asiama cautioned.
“Credible communication and sustained fiscal discipline will be key to protecting these gains.”

Pan-African Conference on Central Banking

The two-day high-level conference is being hosted by the Bank of Ghana in partnership with the Bank of England and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).

Held under the theme:
“Central Bank Governance: Leadership, Credibility and Resilience in African Central Banking,”
the event brings together leaders of 23 African central banks to discuss policy independence, governance and regional financial stability.

Notable attendees included:

  • British High Commissioner to Ghana, Dr. Christian Rogg

  • Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy at the Bank of England, Clare Lombardelli

  • First Deputy Governor of BoG, Dr. Zakari Mumuni

  • Second Deputy Governor of BoG, Matilda Asante-Asiedu

Collaboration and Peer Learning

Dr. Rogg praised the growing cooperation among African central banks, noting that shared learning is now key in addressing inflation, debt risks and global market instability.

He emphasized that the partnership between the Bank of Ghana and the Bank of England — which began in 2015 — has evolved from aid-oriented support into a knowledge-sharing model that strengthens financial governance and resilience.

Ms. Lombardelli added that the Bank of England remains committed to supporting central banks across the Global South through training, research collaborations and initiatives such as the UK and international market funding programmes.

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Bank of Ghana Gives Unlicensed Digital Lenders Until June 2026 to Obtain Licenses or Face Shutdown

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The Bank of Ghana (BoG) has issued a firm directive to all unlicensed mobile loan apps and digital credit providers operating in the country, giving them until June 30, 2026, to regularize their operations or face severe regulatory sanctions, including possible suspension or closure.

 

Starting November 3, 2025, the central bank will begin receiving applications from companies seeking to operate as Digital Credit Service Providers (DCSPs) under new licensing guidelines. These guidelines are aimed at bringing greater order, transparency, and consumer protection to Ghana’s fast-growing digital lending sector.

 

This move comes amid increasing public concern over the surge of unregulated online lenders accused of charging excessive interest rates, violating data privacy, and using unethical methods to recover loans.

 

The BoG emphasized that any entity failing to comply within the specified timeframe would face “appropriate regulatory action” as part of ongoing efforts to strengthen oversight and build public confidence in Ghana’s fintech and digital credit space.

 

The central bank is urging all existing operators to submit the necessary documentation to the FinTech and Innovation Office for review and approval well ahead of the June 2026 deadline.

 

 

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Business

IMF Warns Ghana Against Early Return to International Markets

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned the Government of Ghana against making a premature return to international capital markets, warning that renewed “excessive and expensive borrowing” could undermine the country’s fragile economic recovery.

 

With just two weeks to the presentation of the 2026 national budget, the IMF’s Resident Representative in Ghana, Dr. Adrian Alter, has urged government to remain prudent in its financing decisions and to focus on concessional loans from development partners such as the World Bank, the African Development Bank (AfDB), and the IMF itself.

 

In an interview on Channel One TV’s Point of View with Bernard Avle, Dr. Alter noted that although global financial conditions have improved slightly, borrowing on international markets would still come at a significantly high cost — likely above 10 percent interest — due to Ghana’s current credit rating.

 

“We have advised the government to be extremely prudent, not to repeat the excessive borrowing mistakes of the past,” Dr. Alter said. “When concessional financing is available from multilateral agencies like the World Bank, the African Development Bank, and the IMF, there’s little reason to seek expensive loans on the international markets.”

 

Dr. Alter emphasized that borrowing costs remain prohibitive for emerging economies like Ghana, making any return to the Eurobond market risky under present conditions.

 

He further explained that under the ongoing IMF-supported programme, Ghana faces strict limits on new external borrowing to ensure debt sustainability. The country is therefore expected to maintain a financing mix of about 70 percent domestic and 30 percent external borrowing, consistent with the IMF’s debt sustainability framework and agreements with creditors.

 

“On the domestic market, we’ve worked closely with the government to begin lengthening bond maturities beyond one year,” Dr. Alter said. “We hope that by early next year, conditions will be in place for the domestic bond market to reopen.”

 

Ghana has remained locked out of the international capital markets since its 2022 debt default, when the government suspended payments on most of its external debt as part of efforts to stabilize the economy. The default severely eroded investor confidence, effectively cutting off access to new borrowing.

 

The country is currently implementing a $3 billion IMF-supported programme aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability after years of widening fiscal deficits, rising debt levels, and high inflation. The programme seeks to return public debt to sustainable levels, rebuild foreign reserves, and promote inclusive growth.

 

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